It’s time to talk about what has been happening in the real estate market! I love diving into the numbers and trying to see what the statistics are telling us. I am going to look at the supply and demand metrics across both the monthly metrics comparing them to last month and last year and at the daily metrics to see if there are any trends that we can spot.
We will start with the most straight forward of the statistics and look at the supply of homes. This is the trend for the number of homes for sale each month for the past three years. as you can see we are at a new low. 995 homes were on the market at the snapshot in time that this was recorded. This is down 11.2% from last month (1132) and 26.7% from last year (1357). This has been a strange year and is going to be an area that probably deviates from past trends. Each of the past 3 Mays the number of homes on the market was among the highest of the year with it beig the peak in 2019 and 2017. This year that does not seem to be the trend as this is the lowest inventory in the past 3 years.
Next we will look at the number of homes listed this past month to see what the trends look like as far as increasing the inventory.
We have another trend being broken here. The past 3 years May has been among the highest number of new listings going on the market. This past month we had 806 listings which is down 7.5% from last month and 7.8% from last year. There is a definite seasonality to new listings and with this year being different it adds uncertainty to what the trend will look like moving forward.
So looking at the daily metrics over the past two months the 28 day moving average has increased steadily through April and has styed pretty steady in May. I expect there to be an increase in the coming weeks as the area has had increased activity, but that is not really reflected in the listing numbers yet.
Demand is harder to directly measure. It is not possible to get an accurate metric of how many willing buyers are in the market so we have to look at proxy metrics. Unfortunately all of these metrics are lag indicators in that we cannot see the impact until after the event has happened. They are still informative, and all we have but not necessarily very useful for predictions.
The first thing we look at is closed sales. This is a count of how many transactions closed each month. This is important as it is the only time that we have prices and that we are sure the transaction will happen, but unfortunately it happens 30-60 days after the buyer and seller agreed to a price so it does not tell us much about the current market it is more like looking back at the market 30-60 days ago. All that being said there were 677 closed sales in May. This is up 7.9% since last month and down 5.3% since last year.
Next we will look at how many sales went pending. This is a measure of how many contracts were written and is a better barometer of the current demand. Unfortunately because these are just pending we do not know for sure that they actually will happen, or what the price will be at closing. This chart is showing that Pending Sales reached a 3 year high with 844 pending sales. This is a 14.6% increase since last month and a 9.4% increase since last year. With the social distancing rules changing it is not surprising that activity has increased or that that increase has not shown up in the closed sales yet. We should expect a pretty significant increase in closed sales in June.
The daily trend does show that there has been a steady increase throughout the month of May. on the number of homes pending per day. The month started with a 22.5 per day 28 day moving average and by the end of the month it has increased to 24.1 per day. Also there was not really a week that had significantly lower listings then the other weeks with the 7 day moving average staying above 20 for the whole month.
We also want to take a look at the days on the market as it is another indicator of demand. When days on market is low it indicates there is a higher demand for housing. The average days on market reached a low of 27 days. Compared to 33 days last month and 42 days last year.
Supply & Demand
When we look at supply and demand together it helps us normalize some of the numbers.
Months of supply is a simple ratio of the umber of homes available divided by the number of homes sold last month. It tells us how many months it will be until we sell out of homes with no additional inventory. We have reached a new low of 1.4 months of inventory across Madison county. so even with the decrease in sales we still have such a low inventory that the ratio has increased in the direction of the seller. A balanced market (when neither the buyer or seller have a distinct advantage) is about 6 months of inventory.
The daily chart give us a look at the daily net gain or loss in homes for sale. I put the 7, 14, and 28 day moving averages on here to see if there were any trends. The only real trend I notices is that the net is staying very close to 0.
I’m glad you asked. The combination of these statistics show me that we are still in a seller’s market that is constrained by inventory. The slow down we have seen in closings is driven by the lack of inventory. There has not been a decrease in demand it is just that the supply is so low.
Looking at the median sales price we can see that prices are continuing to climb to new highs. The Madison county market is in need of inventory so it is a great time to sell a house and get top dollar. Buyers need to be aggressive when making offers as there will be competition. Investors should be looking for opportunities to add value as there is not much easy money out there.
If you need any help buying or selling or need any real estate related advice give me a call 256-617-3975.
Hope you have a great one!